PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal is considering another reduction in daily ship transits as drought pressure weighs on its water supply. Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta said traffic could fall to about 29 vessels a day in February or March 2027. Any further cut would depend on continued dry conditions and reservoir levels. The waterway is already moving toward a daily limit of 32 transits from Sept. 15.
El Niño drought puts fresh pressure on Panama Canal capacity and reservoir levels. (AI-generated image)
The Panama Canal Authority began reducing capacity after rainfall and watershed inflows fell below expected levels during the wet season. Daily crossings first dropped to 34 before the planned reduction to 32. The canal depends on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to operate its locks. Each transit requires water to raise or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The canal averaged 35 daily transits through June 30 during fiscal 2026. It recorded 10,726 crossings from October through June, a 5.2% increase from the same period a year earlier. Those figures came before worsening rainfall conditions prompted new operating limits. The canal remains a major route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers and other vessels serving global trade.
Reservoir levels shape daily capacity
Water availability has long determined how many ships can cross the canal during dry periods. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits fell to 22 in December as Gatun Lake dropped to unusually low levels. Conditions improved after rainfall returned and water conservation measures supported reservoir recovery. Canal managers now continue to track lake levels, watershed inflows and precipitation as they set daily operating capacity.
Officials have also adjusted vessel draft rules as part of current water management measures. A planned Neopanamax draft reduction to 47.5 feet did not take effect after officials reviewed updated reservoir conditions. The maximum draft remained at 48 feet. Draft limits affect how deeply a loaded ship sits in the water and can influence the amount of cargo carried through the canal.
Booking controls tighten with fewer slots
The canal has revised booking and auction procedures as fewer daily transit slots become available. Auction categories now separate vessels by cargo type, including container ships, gas carriers, tankers and bulk vessels. Full container ships with greater carrying capacity receive priority in some Neopanamax allocations when other conditions are equal. Canal officials have encouraged vessels without reservations to use the booking system because confirmed bookings secure scheduled transit dates.
No decision has been announced to reduce traffic to 29 ships a day. Espino de Marotta described that level as a possible restriction if dry conditions continue into early 2027. The canal is also advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to increase long-term water storage capacity. Authorities say the project will support canal operations while also strengthening water availability for a large share of Panama’s population.